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Donald Trump Returns To The White House: Can He Turn Back The Gears of War?

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By Akerele Christabel

November 6, 2024
5:31 pm
Los Angeles, CA

Donald Trump has punched his ticket back to the White House after defeating his Democrat rival, Kamala Harris. Trump’s Republican Party got 51% of total votes cast to Harris’ Democrat Party’s 47.4%. The former president whom some describe as belligerent, others as firm and principled, is now set for a second stay in the Oval Office. While Trump, in his campaign, promised to fix America’s internal issues, he also had a lot to say about the country’s foreign policy. In his first stint as US president from 2017 to 2021, Trump gained a reputation for his non-interventionist and trade protection policies – accurately summed up in his slogan “America First”. Observers will not be wrong if they expect him to tow the same line in his second time as

While Trump, in his campaign, promised to fix America’s internal issues, he also had a lot to say about the country’s foreign policy. In his first stint as US president from 2017 to 2021, Trump gained a reputation for his non-interventionist and trade protection policies – accurately summed up in his slogan “America First”. Observers will not be wrong if they expect him to tow the same line in his second time as president.

Ukraine War

In the course of the presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris in the recent week, Trump claimed that, if elected in November, he would bring an end to the Ukraine war before even getting sworn in as president in January. He went further to say that the war would have never started had he won the 2020 election, and has boasted of being able to end the war “in 24 hours”. However, he declined going into details, claiming they would render his plans unsuccessful.

“I have a very exacting plan on how to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea, maybe not a plan, but an idea for China,” Trump said last week in a podcast interview with Lex Fridman. He later added: “But I can’t give you those plans because if I give you those plans, I’m not going to be able to use them. They’ll be unsuccessful. Part of it is surprise”

Political observers expect Trump to try to force Kyiv and Moscow into at least a ceasefire along the current front lines. Along with this ceasefire will come a permanent settlement, one that would cement Russia’s territorial gains, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the territories occupied since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It has also been predicted that Trump will accept conditions laid down by Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin in a bid to delay or prevent Ukraine’s membership of NATO. Trump has been known for towing an hard line when it comes to the transatlantic security alliance. His actions match his sentiments that Europeans were free-riding on America’s commitment to protection of its neighbours.

During his campaign, Trump was heard to have warned that he would not only refuse to defend nations “delinquent” on funding but would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to them.

“NATO would face the most serious existential threat since its founding,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser in the Obama administration.

Could Trump, once again, threaten to abandon the alliance in order to get Europeans to sign up to a deal with Putin over Ukraine?

What’s Next For The Middle East?

As he said of Ukraine, Trump has also vowed to hammer out peace in the Middle East, with the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hezbollah war raging in the region.

He has repeatedly said that, if he had been in power rather than Joe Biden, Hamas would not have attacked Israel because of his “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, which funds the group. In truth, during his first administration, Trump enacted strongly pro-Israel policies, naming Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the US embassy there from Tel Aviv. He also pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear deal, applied greater sanctions against Iran and ordered the killing of Gen Qasem Soleimani – Iran’s most powerful military commander.

Trump has expressed support for Israel’s fight to destroy Hamas in the Palestinian enclave. However, he has encouraged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a Trump ally widely believed to have favored his return to power, to finish the job quickly.

Trump is expected to continue arming Israel, after warning that the Middle Eastern nation will be “eradicated” if he had lost the election.

China and Taiwan

When he was in office, Trump labelled China a “strategic competitor” and imposed tariffs on some Chinese imports to the US. This sparked retaliatory tariffs by Beijing on American imports.

While third parties made effort to ameliorate the trade dispute, relations worsened between the Eastern and Western giants as Trump dubbed Covid a “Chinese virus”.

The US has maintained military assistance for self-ruled Taiwan, which China sees as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing’s control. Trump has said China would never dare to invade democratically governed Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory, if he were president.

Trump said in October that if he returned to the White House, he would not have to use military force to prevent a Chinese blockade of Taiwan because President Xi knew he was “crazy”, and he would impose paralysing tariffs on Chinese imports if that happened.

America’s allies in Europe and the world at large look towards the White House in a mix of apprehension and optimism. While the world did not elect Donald Trump, America is a behemoth whose steps are felt globally. Additionally, the unpredictable and pugnacious nature of the returning president, while hailed as a diplomatic asset by loyalists, has shrouded the direction of the new administration in a global new fog.